 The NBA playoffs are about to begin and so we must all prepare ourselves for the seemingly endless and sometimes painfully vacuous predictions and analysis of the empty suits at ESPN. Legler and Bucher will provide some fairly intelligent commentary, but will make predictions and somehow simultaneously avoid making predictions -- “Well Mike, if Alan Iverson plays the way that we all know that he is capable of playing, and if Gilbert Arenas is actually fully healthy, and if Shaq cannot avoid foul trouble, and if the rumors of Sam Cassell's being from the planet Krypton somehow affect the way that Garnett is playing, and if Ginobli continues to favor his left groin as opposed to his right groin because he is left-handed, then we might just possibly see a Nuggets/Wizards finals.” Steven A. Smith will spew some intelligent commentary, but because of his nasty habit of angrily yelling it at us, we won't hear it. Bill Walton, famous for his convoluted way of somehow comparing the philosophies of Pliny the Elder to the coaching techniques of Flip Saunders, will come down off the high caused by the painkillers that he his taking for his pinched nerve in order to make some comments. But because he is Bill Walton, everything that he says will still sound as if it is coming from a Darvon-induced euphoria. Dick Vitale will chime in with his usual meaningless and moronic predictions, a la “the Cavaliers will beat the Spurs in six games” (For those of you who may have forgotten, the Spurs swept the Cavaliers). Now that I have preemptively criticized the analysis and predictions of the Empty Suit Programming Network, it is only fair that I expose myself to similar criticism by providing my own vacuous analysis and laughable predictions. I will agree with most of the analysts and say that the NBA playoffs this year have the potential of being the best playoffs that we have seen in a long time. Through a seemingly magical confluence of events and some blockbuster trades, the NBA is close to parity among it's playoff teams. The talent level is very close to being equal on each of the eight competing Western Conference teams, and there are only small variations in the level of talent on the first five seeds in the Eastern Conference. I am not willing to state that the big three of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen is clearly superior to Wallace, Billups, and Hamilton. Nor will I state that Gasol, Bryant, and Odom are clearly superior to Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili or that Shaq, Stoudemire, and Nash have more talent than Camby, Anthony, and Iverson.
Since there is no team in the playoffs that clearly has a talent advantage over all of the other teams, I believe that the NBA champion this year will be determined by two factors other than talent: Coaching and mental toughness. With those two factors in mind, here is my playoff analysis. I encourage criticism and commentary from all who read this. Celtics/Hawks. This is one of the exceptions where the talent of one team is clearly superior to the other. The Hawks have no chance of winning this one. The Celtics will sweep. We will discuss the Celtics mental toughness and coaching when they move on to the second round. Pistons/76ers. This is another exception to the parity of talent statement made earlier. I will say that the 76ers do have talent, but it is inexperienced talent. The Pistons will win this series, and the only question is how long it will last. If Rasheed Wallace decides to leave it all on the floor during every game, the series will last five games. If Rasheed decides to be Rasheed, then the series could last seven games. Magic/Raptors. This is a fantastic coaching match-up and I give Stan Van Gundy a slight edge over Sam Mitchell only because Van Gundy is the hardest working coach in the NBA. As to mental toughness, Nestoveric, Bosh, and Ford just have not demonstrated the desire that Howard, Turkoglu, and Lewis have. The Magic have a slightly better coach and they are more mentally prepared, so they will take this series in six games. Cavaliers/Wizards. Eddie Jordan is a much better coach than Mike Brown. Eddie Jordan has a great deal more experience, and he is proven that he can do wonders with very little talent. In addition to the superior coaching of the Wizards, the Cavaliers have a major liability this year and his name is LeBron James. Last year in the playoff series against the Pistons, James provided us with one of the greatest examples of mental toughness that I have ever seen. He was determined to win that series, and he did it. This year, rather than demonstrating a single-minded purpose, he has decided that he should take over the responsibilities of Danny Ferry's job. His stats are tremendous, but his vocal criticism of the team's front office has taken the heart out of the rest of the team. The Wizards will win this in seven. Lakers/Nuggets. George Karl should never be mentioned in the same breath with Phil Jackson. Karl has never demonstrated any ability as a coach, and with the Nuggets he functions not as a coach but as a babysitter of delinquents. On an individual basis, the Nuggets could quite possibly have more talent than the Lakers, but they are a group of misfits that seem to play basketball as a sideline to support their real interest of body art. Iverson is tough-minded, but the Nuggets have no coach and they have no leader on the court. Lakers in five. Hornets/Mavericks. Even though he has less experience, Avery Johnson is a much better coach than Byron Scott. In my opinion, two of the toughest minded guys in the NBA are Nowitski and Kidd. I know that everyone wants a championship for New Orleans, but they will not get out of the first round. Dallas in seven. Spurs/Suns. This is going to be the most exciting playoff series that we have seen in a long time. As for the coaching, Mike D'Antoni is a cry-baby and inept. Popovich is the best coach in the NBA right now. There is no comparison between the two. But the Suns are showing a strong mental toughness, while the Spurs have seemed distracted. One wild card in these series will be the officiating. Shaq is the toughest player to officiate in the NBA. If the officiating goes Shaq's way, the Suns win. I predict that, in spite of D'Antoni, the series will go seven, blood-spilling games, and the Suns will win it. Jazz/Rockets. Jerry Sloan wins the coaching battle over Adelman with no discussion. There are only a few coaches in the NBA that I would choose over Sloan, and Adelman is certainly not one of them. Calling the mental toughness variable is much more difficult. Boozer is a stud, as is Battier. But both McGrady and Okur are wimps. I say the Jazz in seven because Sloan is the better coach.
After the first round is over, we will review these choices and pick the winners for the second round.
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